Tuesday, June 15, 2010

The need to have your own perspective in trading...

I love reading other people's approach to trading stocks and about their successes and so on. I enjoy trading and feel a rush when I wake up in the morning knowing that I am holding a position that could explode and me lots of money. However, if one is to make money trading the stock markets in the long term it is important that you develop your own perspective of the stock markets.

Just as I mentioned in a previous post, the leading stocks often appear to be "too extended" after the market indexes have confirmed a new uptrend by "following through". Case in point this article from http://www.chartswingtrader.com/2010/06/state-of-market-61510.html . After being bearish for sometime. He essentially says that today qualifies as a follow through day according to IBD. He also conceeds that the markets may go higher although his indicators have not yet confirmed the start of a new bull market. However, when he mentions the leading stocks including DECK which I have already been long of he says they are currently too extended and that "Some rest and consolidation here would help in this regard."

However, I know from experience once you miss the initial opportunity to get long of leading stocks as they break out of their bases they rarely pullback or consolidate for a significant period of time. You can see this for you self. Just look back at the stocks that lead the previous rally. They hardly pause for more than a day or two. So once you miss the boat at the harbour its gonna be very hard to catch it at sea.

There are traders who purport to make money by following differing approaches to that which suggest on my blog. Like Mark Minervini for instance who suggests that one should wait for total confirmation of a change in trend before initiating positions. It has been documented that he has made out standing returns for extended periods even winning more than one trading competitions. He has found an approach that works for him. Although he has been successful with this approach it does not mean that you will be too if you follow it blindly. It is way more important that you develop your own approach based on a perpespective you've come to after assimilating real trading experiences with the thoughts and works of others.

No one way is perfect. Every method has it weaknesses. The most important thing is that you find a way to make money that you are comfortable with and enjoy doing. Until then. Good luck and good trading!

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