Sunday, October 17, 2010

My stance on market conditions...

In my opinion, at this point you should be looking to take swing trades in speculative stocks and quality stocks off of flags, pennants, pullbacks with the cleanest set ups with less than normal position size and trailing take profit stops off the hourly or 30min chart because although the markets seem toppy, topping can take weeks before ending. Also I think the optimal time to take breakout trades has passed. We are now at a point in this uptrend where it is better to enter off pullbacks or pauses rather than breakouts from bases.

Secondly, the next big money is now going to be on the short side of the market not the long side as many would have you think. Also historically down moves in bull markets are sharp and the bulk of the move usually happens with in a few days unlike the uptrend which we have just seen that has been grinding steadily higher by the day. In order to get short in anticipation of a sell off you need to be looking for set ups like this:

THIS THE BIGGER PICTURE: Stage 4 downtrend after stage 3 top.

THIS IS THE ENTRY SET UP: After breaking down from a 2 month consolidation (formed while the market was rallying) on heavy volume, SAFM is now pulling back to resistance on lower volume, forming a bear flag. Entry is on a break of the lower trend line with a stop above the pivot high.

There are two options for exiting this trade. Either at the $36.00 major support level or into momentum as the market internals hit extreme levels on the downside. It is imperative that you exit this trade into momentum as stocks tend to pull back very sharply off correction lows.

Good luck and good trading!

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