Friday, October 1, 2010

Short Opportunities...

With the T2108 above 80 for just over a week now and the T2106 diverging lower after coming close to touching 250 three weeks ago, and with the indexes coming under distribution after rallying straight up for five weeks now, the probability of at least a two week pullback is now very high! (i.e. this is a shorting opportunity window: Step 1).

Step 2: Some broken leaders.

Step 3: All of these stocks have high probability shorting patterns with in the context of the current market action and have targets that represent reward three times the size of risk in each instance that also have a high probability of getting hit should the markets reverse as I anticipate they will in the near future.

Step 4: Calculate position size and the number of positions you will take based on your maximum portfolio risk and the maximum number of positions you can manage using the stops and entries suggested.

Step 5: Allow the ideas to play out. Use your judgement near targets. If the markets and stocks look poised to move even lower then you can extend your targets a bit and perhaps use a trailing stop. If the markets look poised to reverse and push higher but your stocks haven't hit there targets then think about getting out a bit early with some profits (still better than none). Re-evaluate market conditions and come up with a new plan like this one again and repeat.

Good luck with your trading!

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